Shock TRUMP EFFECT Poll: Dems Up Big In Texas — Talarico Crushing Paxton By 6 Pts

Yuge L For Trump

The results are in, and Donald Trump’s midterm convention was a major bust, with a new round of polls showing races going better for Democrats and worse for Republicans — and a blockbuster Texas poll that should have Republicans rethinking their life choices.

It was barely a week ago that Trump and whichever Republicans who were willing to stand next to him convened in Dallas for their so-called “Trumpapalooza” midterm “convention,” two days of lies, racism, and other assorted fails.

Trump himself bragged about the convention a few days later, writing on Truth Social:

The Republican Midterm Convention in Dallas was a solidly sold out winner for Republicans. Also, great Views and Ratings. Should have a big impact on November 3rd.

Not so fast — the event was obviously far from sold out and got clobbered in the ratings by NFL football.

As for the “big impact,” it already seems to be making one — in the wrong direction.

While most competitive races have shifted even more in the Democratic Party’s direction since the convention in models like Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Democrats have taken a big lead in the generic ballot. They lead by eight points in a New York Times poll released after the convention.

But there is no better example of the Trump effect than in a new Siena poll of Texas that shows State Rep. Gina Hinojosa leading Governor Greg Abbott by four points, and State Rep. James Talarico clobbering AG Ken Paxton by six.

From the pollster:

“Hinojosa has opened a small four-point lead over Abbott. He had a six-point lead in June, and led by a point in July” ReconMR Senior Research Analyst Lindsey Hendren said. “The movement over the last three months is largely seen by looking at independent voters who now favor Hinojosa by 38 points, 65-27%, up from 13 points, 49-36%, in July.”

As for Talarico, his wider lead comes with more good news — his favorability has cracked fifty percent and he is hammering Paxton with Independents:

Paxton has a negative 38-55% favorability rating, down slightly from 40-52% in July, while Talarico’s favorability rating is 50-39%, up from 46-39% in July. In June, a quarter of voters didn’t have an opinion about Talarico; now it’s just 10% of voters. The movement in favorability ratings is consistent with the movement in vote choice.

“The race for US Senate is heating up as Talarico extends his lead over Paxton,” Hendren said. “This movement can also be seen by looking at independent voters who now favor Talarico by 40 points, 64-24%, up from 23 points, 53-30% in July.”

While the Trump-endorsed Paxton’s weakness as a candidate is well-known, there’s another factor embedded in the poll’s crosstabs — Donald Trump’s favorability is just 31 percent overall and a deadly sixteen percent with Texas Independents.

There’s still a lot of time left, and Democrats have been burned by Texas before, but right now it looks like Republicans are sinking across the board, with Trump dragging them to the bottom.